Sunday Special: Tackling Nigeria's Food Inflation Surge
Hungry man remains angry man o
Hallo! Happy Sunday : )
This email is coming almost an hour late because the loves of my life asked me to rest.
Many weekends are very busy for me, and this was not any different, but I had to squeeze some time in to just relax this afternoon. So, if you have been overworking like me and now have a sprained arm and a sore thigh, you should probably have a longer sleep tonight.
Anyway, did you catch the spontaneous video I shared during the week? Nope? You should see it on my Instagram page here. It was about the problem of food inflation. Like I said in the video, about half of Nigeria’s problem is FOOD. The only other major problem is FX. If these two are very well tackled, then we are on better days already.
I have previously dealt with FX. So, today, I will be extending my rant on food here.
I am a big believer in miracles, and right now, that’s what I SEE SUSTAINING NIGERIA. Frankly, hunger topples nations in very chaotic ways. Unfortunately, it seems the Nigerian state is hellbent on heading there rather than forestalling such.
When inflation is flirting with 30% and the major cause is food, then you’re playing with fire. Can you put fire in your lap and not be burned? The Nigerian Bureau of Statistics puts food inflation at 35% year on year for January while the cost of a healthy diet was said to be up over 60% year on year recently. Another survey by Nairametrics showed staple food items had jumped in price by over 100% in the past year. I know for a fact that an overwhelming majority of people did not see their incomes rise by 50% in the past year that is if they even did not see a decline. I know this because an income increase is a big testimony in church.
When staples become expensive and incomes are flat, we are first faced with malnutrition. This is even worse for children. It will be surprising to note that there are more malnourished children in Nigeria than in war-torn Ukraine. It’s so bad that Ukraine donated grains to Nigeria as a result. In the words of my icon, Peter Obi, what a national disgrace! We have the land and the people, but we are hungry. “E bi pa wa,” as echoed in that video in Isale Eko, echoes across the 900 sq km of what is to be the giant of Africa. Now, here is the crazier fact: food is not only expensive, it is scarce. You can be ready to pay twice for your favourite box of chocolate and yet not see it in 7 out of 10 supermarkets. Chocolate is for rich kids, yeah? Okay, let’s talk vegetables. If you have doubts, ask your trader. The same goes for rice and many others. You may have a hard time to easily source some foodstuffs in bulk from a single trader today. Malnutrition is step one.
An economic slump is step two. I’m not sure which has a greater cascading effect between steps one and two. In the “good old days” (2018/2019), Nigerians were spending 60% of their income on food. Now, consumption accounts for most of our GDP (remember consumption to production?) and this is mostly from food. However, the most long-term growth effects in an economy will come from investments. For instance, by increasing oil outputs by a marginal 100k barrels per day, we were able to record 3% GDP growth in 2023 despite a depressing economy. Unfortunately, as of today, Nigerians are spending nearly all their incomes on food. For the extremely vulnerable, they either have to borrow, beg to eat, or borrow to eat. That’s an economy on a crazy high cliff. Borrowing to consume and not invest is shortchanging future growth. If parents are watching their children stay malnourished while the economy worsens because of fewer investments, trust me, it’s a miracle that there’s still an air of normalcy around here. But having a miracle will never be enough ground for continued negligence. The government can’t stay negligent and when things fall off the cliff say, “it’s the handwork of the devil” (like y2k Nollywood). ‘Nuff said!
I would like to spend less time on solutions because the bloated size of the Nigerian government has people with better academic qualifications and industry experience than I do. In other words, they know what to do so I do not need to write an academic paper here. But for the sake of saying the most important things for everyone else:
Import staples. Immediately, prioritise FX for major food distributors and producers to import food. This will not make food cheaper but will keep prices stable in the interim. It will also make food available. Rice, beans, milk, meat, and fish! The FX should be accessible. Don’t give only 3 traders. Don’t give to new traders! I’d have said the government should do the business itself, but gosh, ineptitude resides there, and when mixed with corruption, phew, we’d be worse than an ab initio.
Adopt newer agricultural methods for short-term food crops. Green farming has to become a thing across southern cities. The Ministry of Agriculture from Q2 2024 needs to work with all state offices down south to set up indoor or controlled farms for yam, cassava, tomato, spinach, and something else to complete the stews and soups. Of course, support the putres with access to feed (if imported, give FX). I don’t know if dry season farming as mentioned by AfDB president can be scaled down south too, but they could ask him for update. Over the years, hundreds of millions of dollars have poured into the North in almost free money with nothing to show for it. It makes no sense to keep pouring into stolen baskets. Gotta fix the corruption with those findings up there before resuming. Put some money down south as actual business capital, not free money where there is faster access to the market and lower insecurity.
Fix insecurity. Most importantly, stop the drama and fix it! Nigeria shares similar latitudes with other major southwest African neighbors (Benin, Togo, Ghana), yet it is here that ISWAP, Boko Haram, terror herdsmen, and all manner of criminality exist. Something is uniquely wrong, and no, climate change does not explain it (that is a nice excuse). This factor is similar for our neighbors in their northern regions. So, what’s happening here gan gan? We cannot sustainably eat rich or make lots of money from agriculture if our most arable lands in the north remain under siege or if the major plantations in the south need bank-grade security to function.
My afternoon nap was essential to draw strength for this rant.
I initially went to Gemini and ChatGPT for ideas for this article, but the responses were too posh, and too academic. AI did not understand that I’ve had to cut down on snacking this year because of inconsistent taste, terrible quality, reduced sizes, and increasing prices. So, I decided to write this from my heart. Hope you can relate?
Try chop this week.
Oluebube.
P.S. Last week, I was reminiscing on some experiences I had 10 years ago in secondary school. They were blissful, with lots of food in between. I don’t think secondary school students in my position now would enjoy as much food. Haeww. God, please, I hope to read this in 10 years time and say “Those were ghetto days for Naija mehn”. Ciao